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DTM scores four competing macro paths using verified growth, inflation, labor, policy, yield-curve, and historical-analog evidence. These are transparent scenario scores—not calibrated probabilities.
Growth stays positive while inflation cools without a material labor-market break.
Growth and demand strengthen enough to keep inflation or policy pressure elevated.
Inflation remains sticky or rises while growth and labor conditions weaken.
Growth contracts or stalls as labor, housing, and cyclical indicators deteriorate.
The history chart excludes the current historical-analog adjustment so that past scores are calculated consistently from the same core macro rules. It uses today’s latest revised historical data and is not a vintage-pure backtest.
The top-five analogs currently contribute a small adjustment to the live scores. Their average 12-month outcomes were GDP +2.6%, unemployment +0.08 pp, and Core PCE -0.05 pp.
Each scenario starts from a base score and gains or loses points as verified signals support or contradict it. Scores are bounded from 0 to 100 but do not sum to 100 and should not be read as forecast probabilities.
The evidence tables show rule contributions before the 0–100 limits. Core scores start at 15 for Soft Landing and Reacceleration, and 10 for Stagflation and Recession Risk. The applied analog adjustment shows the actual change after those limits, so core plus adjustment equals the final score.
The scenario-history chart uses revised macro history. Once ALFRED backfilling is complete, DTM can add a vintage-pure version that reconstructs scenario scores using only information available at each historical date.
Use the Yield Curve dashboard, Historical Analogs, Historical As Of mode, and Research Lab to challenge the signals behind the leading score.