DESTROY THE MARKETS
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The shape of the Treasury curve compresses a huge amount of information about policy, inflation expectations, growth, and risk appetite. This page turns that shape into something you can actually interrogate.
Current curve cards use the latest date with stored observations for all five maturities (2026-10-30). Historical comparison curves use monthly-normalized yields and require all five maturities in the exact month one or five years earlier. An unavailable comparison is omitted rather than replaced with an older month.
A negative spread means the 2-year yield is above the 10-year yield. This is the classic market-focused inversion measure.
A negative spread means the 3-month Treasury is above the 10-year yield. It compares current short-rate conditions with a long-term benchmark.
The 10Y–2Y curve is currently broadly stable. Steepening means the long-short spread is increasing; flattening means it is shrinking.
Growth and inflation define the core quadrant; labor, policy, and the curve provide confirmation or tension.
Regime labels are mechanical classifications built from stored data. They are context, not trading signals.
An inversion episode begins when the monthly 10Y–2Y spread moves below zero. A new episode is not counted until the curve has remained non-inverted for at least six consecutive months, which prevents brief re-crossings around zero from being double-counted. Unemployment is compared with the same month one year later. GDP growth spans the latest quarter completed before the inversion month to the same quarter one year later. These comparisons use the current stored history rather than historical release-time readings. It does not claim that inversion caused those outcomes or guarantee a recession.
Compare Treasury yields with inflation, unemployment, GDP, housing, money supply, and other indicators in Research Lab.